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Capital markets are like Lake Wobegon: everybody is above average.  Every active investor thinks their forecast is better than the market consensus.  Every algo trader thinks their orders are not being picked off.  Every risk manager thinks their model is more robust than anyone else’s. To some extent this is understandable.  It’s irrational to participate in a zero-sum competition if you don’t have some sort of advantage.  And it’s hard to attract investors or clients if you don’t at least Capital markets are like Lake Wobegon: everybody is above average.  Every active investor thinks their forecast is better than the market consensus.  Every algo trader thinks their orders are not being picked off.  Every risk manager thinks their model is more robust than anyone else’s. To some extent this is understandable.  It’s irrational to participate in a zero-sum competition if you don’t have some sort of advantage.  And it’s hard to attract investors or clients if you don’t at least

Capital markets are like Lake Wobegon: everybody is above average.  Every active investor thinks their forecast is better than the market consensus.  Every algo trader thinks their orders are not being picked off.  Every risk manager thinks their model is more robust than anyone else’s. To some extent this is understandable.  It’s irrational to participate in a zero-sum competition if you don’t have some sort of advantage.  And it’s hard to attract investors or clients if you don’t at least